How A Waiter’s Pad Saved My Life

Sidewinder77 · 2012-05-24T18:25:36.807956+00:00

Google, the major automakers, the Germans, the Chinese and others are all independently working on self driving cars.

There are 196 countries and 1000's of cities and the technology will be tried somewhere in the world within 5-years. The result will be on YouTube for everyone to see and once a functioning system is demonstrated it will be rapidly implemented everywhere. Special interests will not have the time or the power to hold back the tidal wave of creative destruction that will result.

Sidewinder77 · 2012-05-24T16:20:06.861610+00:00

Self driving cars might also free up the labor from a large portion of the auto manufacturing industry.

Today a typical car is idle 90%+ of the time, and when a car drives it carries just one person. A self-driving taxi fleet that never stops moving and allows easy car pooling of four passengers could handle all the required trips at just 10% the size of the current fleet. That could mean a lot less cars will have to be manufactured.

Sidewinder77 · 2012-05-24T16:13:42.989417+00:00

Since the entire existing automobile fleet can be replaced by 10% the number of self driving taxis, most of the existing auto companies will go out of business and be replaced by the few companies that are first create self driving cars. These few companies will have the technical ability to run self driving fleets, not city bureaucrats. Government will surely regulate self driving cars, but they're way to dumb to run them themselves.

Sidewinder77 · 2012-05-24T16:07:02.785026+00:00

Sensors that see in multiple parts of the electromagnetic spectrum (not just visible) will see things humans can't. If a patch of ice starts to develop, it's location will be detected and it's existence sent to alert all other cars. A maintenance truck could be immediately dispatched to remove/sand the ice so that it's no longer a concern.

Sidewinder77 · 2012-05-24T15:54:56.664346+00:00

All transit systems in the US rely on tax subsidies to run. The true cost of using the system is so high that most people wouldn't use it if they had to pay the full fare price.

Sidewinder77 · 2012-05-24T15:33:57.861698+00:00

You'll probably be able to own a self-driving car, but before long it will become illegal for a human to drive it most places at most times. The safety Nazi's will see to that.

Sidewinder77 · 2012-05-24T15:30:42.534384+00:00

Imo, shortly after the advent of functional self-driving cars, all/most human driving will be banned. It will become a matter of safety.

Given that self-driving cars will get you to your destination in a fraction of the time it currently takes, at a far lower cost, and without the requirement of parking at your destination or your home, most people will voluntarily switch anyways.

Sidewinder77 · 2012-05-24T07:35:59.286936+00:00

Hmm. Well, I did not expect that reply.

In my view a more likely outcome after self-driving cars are implemented:

Whenever you require transportation you whip out your smartphone and request a vehicle. You'll likely just speak the address you're going, or you might select it on a Google Map. You'll have a choice between a single person commuter car, standard size car, truck, etc. Each choice would have a different price per mile, but all would be quite cheap.

Your route of travel will be compared with all other travelers currently requesting transportation and you'll be presented with an option of car-pooling with a few people that are also going your way. If you choose to car pool, your cost per mile would drop considerably. The system will find the nearest available vehicle and tell you the expected time of arrival within a couple of minutes. A countdown will begin on your smartphone and the route you'll travel will be shown to you on a Google Map, allowing you to confirm that the system is taking you to the right location.

When the car arrives it will pick you up and depart for your destination at speeds reaching 100mph. The vehicle will not stop at intersections unless a pedestrian is crossing the street. Inside the vehicle you might nap, check what's new on reddit, or drink a beer. Along the way if you want to change your destination, just whip out your smartphone and make the change. The car would instantly change direction and take you to the new address like a cab driver would.

Other than human transportation, groceries or other goods could all be distributed via autonomous delivery vehicles. Semi-trailers will be automated and be able transport goods non-stop from a port or factory right to the distribution center.

Insurance costs will approach zero as very few crashes will ever occur. The tens of thousands of deaths that happen every year due to human error will no longer take place.

Sidewinder77 · 2012-05-24T02:42:10.979893+00:00

Some ways that the government reduces people's freedom that will be reduced/eliminated by self-driving cars include:

property taxes that are wasted on useless or counter-productive programs
zoning that prevents the type of housing that can be built and hence drives up housing prices, particularly in the most heavily controlled "smart growth" cities
transit systems (including rail and busing) that are unprofitable and require tax revenue to run
the intentional restriction of available parking to force more people to take transit
taxi licensing that restricts the total number of cabs and pushes up the cost of taking a cab
traffic enforcement of human drivers will no longer be required

Self-driving cars will be able to drive much faster than humans. Computers could time cars entering intersections such that no car would have to stop. As a result, average travel speed throughout a city might be greater than 60mph. Commuting time will be greatly reduced.

Increased commuting speed will mean that people can live farther away from their place of work. Today, most people have to live in the same city they work in because it's impractical to live very far away. A self-driving car that averages 60mph within cities, perhaps 100mph on the highway, has a bed in the backseat allowing you to nap, and wifi giving you internet connectivity would make it much easier for anyone willing to put up with a 1-hour commute to live 100 miles from their place of work.

Weary tax paying residents of cities will have a much easier time to flee, and cities will have to compete to keep them. This will seriously reduce the amount of abuse from zoning laws and excessive property taxes that city dwellers currently have to put up with. Parking lots would not be required for self-driving cars. Transit will become obsolete. Taxi regulation will be irrelevant.

Sidewinder77 · 2 days

When you feel like a taco

The technology already exists. We could be just 5 years from a city somewhere in the world going fully automated. Google, the big automakers, the Germans, and the Chinese are all working on self-driving cars.

After they're implemented and shown to work once, they'll be adopted very rapidly throughout the world.

Get ready to rip out those train tracks and send em for recycling!!

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