I’ve done some work with some colleagues on this to attempt to measure the effect of framing Romney as a Mormon. And it does have a clearly negative effect. What we’ve done is create little vignettes in national surveys in which we write biographical statements about Romney and add different pieces of information in. Sociologists talk about a social contact hypothesis, where contacts with a group you’re unfamiliar with helps you to become less fearful and more understanding, and to like them more. That would lead you to believe that if people know a Mormon, they might be resistant to a negative message about Romney being a Mormon.

What we find is that people who know a Mormon really well — a family member or close friend — clearly resist any kind of negative information about Romney and his religion. Because they know otherwise. People that don’t know a Mormon at all are strongly affected by that information, but you can also counter it with positive information and they’ll take that into account. What’s really interesting is that people who know a Mormon in passing — maybe a guy at the office — react strongly to the negative information and you can’t counterbalance it with positive information. We think that has something to do with the fact that Mormons are, in fact, a little different. And if you know one in passing you know enough to know that that person is a little different, but you don’t know enough to know that, although they’re different they’re probably just fine.

Shorter Quin Monson: If you have close Mormon friends, you'll disregard negative info; if you have a Mormon acquaintance, you're actually MORE likely to believe negative messages. Quin Monson's accurate re-telling of Gary Lawrence's research finding is one reason why "every member a missionary" and "I'm a Mormon" are doomed to fail. The Romney camp is smart enough to recognize this and avoids the M word like the plague.